In a paper recently published in Nature, Marshall Burke, Solomon Hsiang, and Edward Miguel, economists based at Stanford and the University of California Berkeley, presented a new analysis of the relationship between historic temperature fluctuations and macroeconomic growth.
Their conclusion delivers two blockbusters. First, in contrast to past studies, they argue that 21st century warming could lead to huge global-scale macroeconomic impacts. The best estimate from Burke and colleagues is that business as usual emissions throughout the 21st century will decrease per capita GDP by 23% below what it would otherwise be, with the possibility of a much larger impact.
Secondly, they conclude that both the size and the direction of the temperature effect depend on the starting temperature. Countries with an average yearly temperature greater than 13°C (55°F) will see decreased economic growth as temperatures rise. For cooler countries, warming will be an economic boon. This non-linear response creates a massive redistribution of future growth, away from hot regions and toward cool regions. Based on the analysis, rich and poor countries respond similarly at any temperature, but the impact of warming is nonetheless much greater on poor countries, because they are mostly in regions that are already warm.
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Lord Nicholas Stern
Today’s young people can and should hold their parents’ generation to account for their present actions. They can elicit an emotional response that can motivate action. If thinking about the lives of unborn future generations seems too abstract to motivate you to act, try instead looking a young child or grandchild in the eye and asking yourself what sort of future you are leaving for them. There is something that, on reflection, many adults would surely find repugnant in the idea that they will leave their children a damaged planet that will radically affect their life possibilities. Lord Nicholas Stern
Kiribati President Anote Tong
"…I remember I had been trying to convince him to visit Kiribati and he did in 2011. He came to Kiribati and I remember he went to visit one of these communities that was flooded every time there is very high tides and there was this young boy who stepped up to the Secretary General and said Mr. Secretary General, you are a very important man you know, is there something that you can do to ensure I will have a future, that I will have a home. And the Secretary General came back and he said Mr. President I have been listening to you at the General Assembly but I never truly understood what it was you trying to communicate but now I do and I feel and I understand I would do everything that I can”
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